MALE VOICE: Our next guest is Martin Manley, whose new book Basketball Heaven—

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I was on TBS as an analyst but was really there for no other reason than to hawk the book.

 

ARCHIVAL: Let’s start with the idea efficiency.

 

RICH LEVINE: In 1989 Martin Manley appeared on Inside the NBA at All Star Weekend to talk about his new book Basketball Heaven. (ENGINE) 11 years before his national TV debut it would’ve seemed impossible for Martin’s life to lead there. Marin turned 25 in 1978, and like a lotta 25-year-olds he was something of an unformed mess, no longer a kid, barely an adult. He was living in a sleepy Kansas suburb feeling adrift, spending countless hours driving aimlessly. In his Toyota pick-up truck, Martin had the gentle musical stylings of a single artist keeping him company.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Being an obsessive person, James Taylor is about the only artist I listened to any regularity. It wasn’t that I didn’t like other songs and other artists, but they weren’t James Taylor.

 

RICH LEVINE: James Taylor famously sang You’ve Got a Friend, but in Martin, he had an obsessed fan.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I knew every note and every word of every song. Nobody was as obsessive as I was about listenin’ to the same thing over and over and over and over, 100, 200 times.

RICH LEVINE: Sweet Baby James, that is a lot of James Taylor. Martin also had other obsessions beyond the tender tracks of JT.

 

It probably wasn’t until I was in my mid-twenties that I started drinkin’ soda. (POP TAB) Sometime shortly after it that it became the only thing I drank, no milk, no juices, no tea, no coffee, no beer, no water, no nothin’ except pop.

 

RICH LEVINE: Hopped up on caffeine and corn syrup, young Martin believed he was special, that he had certain gifts. He just didn’t know yet exactly what they were or how to prove them to the world.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Lord knows he tried.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Not many people know this about me, but when I was 22 years old, I began memorizing the bible.

 

MALE VOICE: James, a servant of God.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I began with the (BACKGROUND VOICE) book of James and the first verse. I repeated it all day long–

 

MALE VOICE: To the 12 tribes in the dispersion–

 

MARTIN MANLEY: The next day I learned the second verse.

 

MALE VOICE: Count it all joy, my brethren, when you meet various trials.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: For a year and a half I memorized a new verse each day. The problem was that I was runnin’ outta time, meaning it was harder and harder to recite the entirety of what I memorized each day because it took so long. It scared me into believing that someday I simply would no longer be able to remember every verse I had learned because I wouldn’t have time to repeat the entirety every day. I’m such an all or nothin’ type person that it caused me to just stop cold.

 

RICH LEVINE: When the obsession became inefficient Martin stopped obsessing. He lost interest and moved on.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Perhaps Martin’s belief in his own specialness had something to do with the fact that he literally saw the world differently than you and me. (BELL) That’s because he had a condition called Synesthesia. Martin’s brain paired numbers with colors in a way that made logical sense to Martin.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Most people don’t make the connections I make, that being associating colors with a number. For most everyone a three is a three, nothing more, nothing less. However, that’s not true for me. A tree is yellow, duh. I can’t remember a time when I did not see numbers as colors. And it wasn’t until the past few years that I actually realized that nobody else I knew saw it that way.

 

RICH LEVINE: It’s possible to imagine Martin’s arc not extending beyond this life of obscurity. But in 1979, the same year the NBA adopted the three-point line, something unexpected happened, something that would change how Martin saw himself for the rest of his life.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: One day when I was 25 years old I saw an IQ test in a magazine called Omni. It was unofficially called the world’s hardest IQ test. I went ahead and filled it out and sent it in. Around eight months later I got a reply in the mail. It said my IQ was 156.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: To put this number in perspective, 156 reportedly lands him in the same neighborhood as Warren Buffett, Mark Zuckerberg, and the Google founders. It’s been speculated that if Einstein had taken an IQ test, he would’ve scored 160.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Within days I had a huge rush of confidence, quit my job, and went back to school. I’ve often thought that when I opened my mail that day it was the day that changed my life.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Martin had desperately wanted to prove to himself and the world that he was unique, brilliant. Now he had proof of his smarts. He had a number he could hold onto: 1-5-6. For Martin, white, red, green. The number arrived in the mail like a bouquet of flowers.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: From 30 for 30 Podcasts, I’m Nick Altschuller.

 

RICH LEVINE: I’m Rich Levine. This is Chasing Basketball Heaven, episode two, Shoot Your Shot. (BASKETBALL DRIBBLING)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: So how did Martin Manley, this eccentric dude with no connections or sports media background, go from twenty-something unknown to prime time analyst? Rich and I went searching for answers and found Martin’s road to Fred Hickman’s desk was winding, thrilling, and at times oddly romantic.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I first saw Chris in an evening economics class at Washburn University in September, 1980.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That would be Christine Tillman, Martin’s eventual first wife.

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: We went out to dinner on our first date. It was more like a job interview than a date. He loved making lists and checking off completed tasks. I didn’t see a list that evening, but I would bet money there was one.

 

RICH LEVINE: Chris agreed to answer our questions over email only. So we had an actress read her messages.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: We discovered that Martin had prepared extensively for the interview, whoop, the– the date.

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: One, where did I go to church? Two, had I been married? Three, did I have children? Four, what did I do in my free time? Five, did I have pets?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Chris told us that on their first date Martin didn’t share much about himself. But in a way we’ve come to think of as classic Martin, he was able to charm her nonetheless, almost by accident.

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: He had an old Toyota pickup at the time. It was Crayola green. The tailgate said ‘Yo,’ the only letters that still had white paint on them. He kept apologizing for that truck. I’m a country kid. Old pickup trucks are part of my life. No need for apologies. The seat wasn’t dusty. That’s the only thing I mighta checked.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Chris was intrigued by Martin’s unique qualities. The courtship moved quickly.

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: It wasn’t too many weeks before we were meeting family and friends on both sides.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: We were talkin’ marriage within a few months. But you have to recognize that I was 27 and she was 29 at the time. Both of us were ready to settle down.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And so less than a year after they started dating Martin and Chris were married. It was 1981, and Martin’s future came further into focus as he was close to earning a business degree.

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: He worked very hard and maintained a 4.0 G.P.A. and was on the dean’s honor roll. We got right up to that last semester when he could finish.

RICH LEVINE: But that’s when fate intervened and not for the last time. Bending Martin’s arc in a different direction.

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: That’s when he met Joe Tongish and got involved in creating a small satellite dish that could give the user big dish results.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Joe Tongish. Friends called him millionaire Joe.

 

RICH LEVINE: He’s that buddy who just knows how to make money.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The one who sees the financial opportunities that the rest of us don’t.

 

RICH LEVINE: A guy who might inspire Martin to drop out of college and take a chance.

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: He was sick of school, wanted to quit. I was disappointed but decided he could always finish later.

 

RICH LEVINE: Spoiler alert: Martin did not finish later.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: In 1983 my partners and I started a satellite TV company in Topeka. I was primarily responsible for the retail division. But we also had a wholesale and manufacturing division and sold to other dealers all over the country.

 

RICH LEVINE: In just a few years Martin and his buddies built their business FoCi (PH) Satellite from three people to almost 100 employees.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And the more time he spent studying the satellite industry, the more Martin noticed inefficiencies. And when Martin Manley noticed inefficiencies, he set out to solve them. One way he did that was by charting his own signal interference maps for more targeted, effective sales. Innovations like this in the growing satellite TV industry helped Martin and Chris land a lovely suburban home by a park with a two-car garage and plenty of room for kids, should they want them.

 

RICH LEVINE: Life was good: beautiful wife, steady job, house in the ‘burbs. And when he had some spare time in the evenings Martin put his own satellite TV to good use.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: During those years I had been able to watch tons of NBA games on satellite, and it turned me into an NBA fan.

 

RICH LEVINE: He was already a huge college hoops fan.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That’s practically written into the Kansas State Constitution.

 

RICH LEVINE: But now Martin was exposed to the best basketball on the planet. His dish let him watch NBA games from across the country.

 

SPORTSCASTER: From the fabulous Forum in Inglewood, California, a special edition of NBA Basketball—

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: He watched the NBA–

 

SPORTSCASTER: –the Milwaukee Bucks–

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: –all season

 

SPORTSCASTER: –and the Los Angeles Lakers–

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: He taped what he couldn’t watch live.

 

MALE VOICE: Tonight’s game–

 

MARTIN MANLEY: It was–

 

MALE VOICE: –is brought to you by–

 

MARTIN MANLEY: –a great period for the league. Magic Johnson and Larry Bird were in their prime. David Stern, the commissioner, had done a great job of marketing. And Michael Jordan was becoming a household name.

 

RICH LEVINE: And while Martin was falling in love with the NBA, he also started to notice (surprise, surprise), some inefficiencies.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: It remains a mystery to me how any coach can let the opposing player shoot a three-pointer when his team leads by three with just a few seconds to go.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: When Martin had looked at the satellite TV industry, he saw a wasted opportunity and was obsessively driven to fix it. Now he looked at the NBA the same way.

SPORTSCASTER: With ten minutes–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Consider Larry Bird–

 

MALE VOICE: –left to play in the third quarter, Bird winds up from three. Yes, Larry Bird. Take that (INAUDIBLE)–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: In 1986 Martin watch Bird lead the league with 82 threes made. That’s less than Brian Taylor hit to lead the league six years earlier. The curve should’ve been going up. The fact that it wasn’t struck Martin as highly inefficient.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: I do remember we had a discussion around the three-point versus the two-point shot.

 

RICH LEVINE: That’s Kevin Mahar (PH), one of Martin’s coworkers at the satellite TV business.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: He made the argument that the value of the three-point shot was if somebody shot a certain percentage that was more valuable than a two-point shot and thus a player should take that as opposed to the two-point shot.

 

RICH LEVINE: Kevin and Martin had an unusual though very Martin meet cute. Young Kevin was working at RadioShack when Martin came in one day to buy a new computer. Impressed by the teenage salesman’s knowledge and people skills, Martin returned to the store a few days later and he offered Kevin a job.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: I mean, it doesn’t take much to talk ya outta workin’ at RadioShack.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Kevin became a sales rep for the satellite business and soon found himself on the receiving end of nonstop Martin takes.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: So many takes.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The two guys hit it off. When they weren’t busy disrupting an industry, they’d argue about the game they both loved.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: I was a traditionalist. I was, you know, brought up in the shadows of K.U. basketball and pound it inside and, you know, take the lay-up whenever you can.

 

RICH LEVINE: ‘Cause that’s real basketball?

 

KEVIN MAHAR: It was back then.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The traditionalist perspective, the perspective of virtually everyone in professional basketball at this point, was simple: a three-pointer is harder to hit, which it is. What the math tells you though is that a lower percentage from three can be worth more than a higher percentage from two.

 

RICH LEVINE: You remember that little math lesson from the last episode? You know, where we proved that 42% from three is actually better than 60% from two?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: It may seem weird now, but back then many people couldn’t wrap their heads around this new idea. All they saw was the duality. Did the ball go through the hoop or not? A shot where the ball doesn’t go in as often has to be bad, right, even if the math tells you differently.

 

RICH LEVINE: This kinda narrow thinking drove Martin nuts. Box scores pissed him off. In fact, Martin grew so frustrated with what he considered an inefficient way to measure basketball goodness, he began thinking of a new number that went beyond box scores.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: The basketball fan has always been somewhat enamored with points. After all, points are the ultimate measurement. Still, it seems somewhat incomplete. I, for one, wanna know more, much more.

 

RICH LEVINE: And then just as Martin’s obsession with basketball started to take off, the satellite industry crashed.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: We downsized and mostly eliminated the retail division.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: But Martin didn’t see the hit to his business as a setback. Instead, it was an opportunity.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: This was perfect timing for me, as I’ve always been one to operate on three to four-year cycles anyway.

 

RICH LEVINE: His satellite company had given him what he needed: an income and exposure to the NBA. His spongy brain had soaked up the date. The numbers pointed his arc in a new direction towards a new project.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And the inspiration for Martin’s new quest was right there in Kansas, that former night watchman at the baked beans factory, Bill James, living only 40 miles away near Lawrence.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I was familiar with Bill James’s work on baseball. James is considered the father of modern-day sabermetrics, the analysis of baseball from a statistical point of view.

 

RICH LEVINE: Specifically, James was the first person to effectively make the case that on-base percentage is a better stat for measuring baseball player’s value than batting average. We don’t care how you get on base as long as you get on base. So it’s easy to see why Martin identified with James. While James aimed to devalue batting averages in Major League Baseball, Martin

wanted to do the same thing with the NBA’s fixation on points per game.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: By 1986 Bill James had been writing for nearly a decade. He’d published a new edition of Baseball Abstract each year all through the late ’70s and to little fanfare.

 

RICH LEVINE: In fact, if not for a man named Dan Okrent, Martin may’ve never even heard of Bill James.

 

DAN OKRENT: I’ll give ya, you know, the canned history– and you can ask me to un-can some of it as you wish.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Okrent is an editor, biographer, and historian.

 

RICH LEVINE: He’s also the inventor of Rotisserie Baseball.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And in the late ’70s he wrote the first big profile of Bill James.

 

DAN OKRENT: I saw a one-inch ad in The Sporting News in I believe the ’77 or ’78 season. It said– “Baseball Abstract“– something like, “fascinating way to look at our beloved game. $5,” post office box in Lawrence, Kansas. And it came mimeographed, and it blew me away– just I couldn’t believe it. I had never read anything like it, not only because of the nature of the statistical analysis but also he’s such a damn good writer.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Which makes sense. Bill James was an English major. He loves William Faulkner. Okrent felt he was the perfect profile.

 

DAN OKRENT: And I was just beginning my career as a baseball writer, proposed it to an editor at Sports Illustrator. I went out to Lawrence, Kansas, I spent time with Bill, his wife, his father, looked at farm he grew on, all that, and– and– wrote a piece.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: But according to Okrent, Sports Illustrated wouldn’t publish it.

 

DAN OKRENT: Because the fact-checker (this is an illustration of what baseball was in those days), she said, “Well, it says here that Bob Kennedy is– of the Cubs is a really good general manager, but everybody knows he’s a really bad general manager.” Well, in fact, Bob Kennedy, through analytics that Bill brought to it, it demonstrated that the trades he made and that the roster decisions he made were very good decisions.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The problem was Bill James was so far ahead of his time that his math was the only thing that could fact-check his math. But he was confident in his work, naysayers be damned.

 

DAN OKRENT: He had the courage of his convictions. He knew he was right, not in every detail, but he knew that he was going the right direction. And he was abashed that people didn’t pay attention to him in baseball, you know, th– that he was dismissed.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: A year later Sports Illustrated finally published the story.

 

RICH LEVINE: “He does it by the numbers,” was the headline. And really, it’s hard to convey to anyone out there younger than the internet just what a big deal it was to be featured in Sports Illustrated back in 1981.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The internet was barely a glimmer in Al Gore’s eye. Outside the local newspaper there were very few places to read about sports. After Okrent’s glowing feature, James’s book sales skyrocketed. Publishers, who had initially balked at Jame’s abstracts, came running back.

 

DAN OKRENT: Suddenly, you know, he offered $40,000 to Bill to publish it.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That’s about $140,000 in today’s money.

 

DAN OKRENT: The fan response was immediate, and– and– the publishers saw that.

 

RICH LEVINE: By 1985 Baseball Abstract hit The New York Times best-seller list, and Bill James became one of the most popular sports writers in the country. He was showing the world how anyone with the right statistical knowledge could understand the game as well as the greatest managers. Here he is sharing that perspective on a panel.

 

BILL JAMES: The people who favor logic and reason and research are much stronger and much better organized than we were 20 years ago, and the people who think that all of that is– a characteristic of kids they didn’t like in high school– (LAUGHTER) are– are clearly in retreat but they’re still very loud and very shrill and quite a bit on TV.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin watched that happen to Bill James. He was inspired. He wanted the exact same success but in a different sport.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Baseball is of course the ultimate statistical sport, much more so than basketball. However, I grew up a basketball fan first and foremost and so that was my first love. Consequently, it just made sense that I would try to adapt some statistical analyses that had never been done before to the sport and leave baseball to others.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: For all its strategic nuance, baseball’s actually a very simple game, a series of simple events: pitcher throws ball, batter hits ball, batter reaches base, rinse and repeat.

 

RICH LEVINE: Basketball analytics, on the other hand, attempts to measure the organized chaos (GAME NOISE) going on around the ball: point guard passes to the shooting guard, shooting guard hits a three, but what was the power forward doing? Maybe he set a good screen that got the shooter open. Or maybe he just stood in the corner. But because he’s good at threes the defense had to guard him, creating more space for the shooting guard to hit his three. How do you measure that impact?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Martin wanted to be plucked from obscurity and recognized as a savant by the sporting world. And, yeah, having a big pile of money would be great too.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin wanted to become Bill James. And how did Bill James become Bill James? He wrote a book.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: So, when we downsized–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Meaning the satellite business–

 

MARTIN MANLEY: –I decided to research and write a book called Basketball Heaven.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin gets to work on that book (BALL HITTING RIM) right after the break.

 

RICH LEVINE: As Martin Manley embarked on this new project of writing a book, his first move was to find an investor. So he reached out to his good buddy and the principal owner of the satellite business, Millionaire Joe, Joe Tongish.

 

JOE TONGISH: He was always interested in what was going on in basketball, and his desire to write and his desire for statistics, he kinda cooked up that idea and came to me and said, “You know, I think there’s a place for a statistical book on basketball.” And so we sat down and he told me what his need was.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: He shoots from way downtown.

 

JOE TONGISH: I thought that was reasonable.

 

RICH LEVINE: Cash, literally. Joe invested roughly $60,000 in Martin’s dream.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Next, Martin got permission from his wife.

 

CHRISTINE TILLMAN: Martin’s decision to work on a book full-time really wasn’t a shock. He thought about it for some time before he decided to make the commitment. He carefully planned his arguments for this proposed major life change. No PowerPoint presentation but a presentation, nonetheless. I was 29 when we got married, well established in my job. We couldn’t afford to live the high life, but we could pay the bills on my income. I was confident in his ability, so I told him to go for it. The only way to know how successful an idea will be is to test it.

 

RICH LEVINE: The final thing he needed was a true partner in crime.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The Klay to his Steph.

 

RICH LEVINE: The Mahorm to his Laimbeer. Once again, Martin needed Kevin from RadioShack.

 

MALE VOICE: Kevin Mahar. (CHEERING)

 

KEVIN MAHAR: The satellite TV thing kinda ran its course and ended, I wanna say, my senior year, somewhere into my last semester of college. Graduated, got a job, moved to Wichita, Kansas, was workin’ for Solo Cup Company drivin’ all over western Kansas. Martin contacted me a little less than a year into that and started talkin’ to me about this project and some of the possibilities that it had.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That included the possibility of making some money. But what really sold Kevin was the free room and board.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: I moved in with him, lived with he and his wife for, I don’t know, couple years.

 

RICH LEVINE: It’s a little weird. It’s not that weird.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: It was a different time, people.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: Lived in the basement. He had it all cleared out, and so his desk was down there, my desk was there. He had bought what at the time was some high-tech computer equipment and this desktop publishing software. He says, “Learn it ’cause I’m gonna be over here writing all this.” He wrote– he wrote this whole thing longhand. All the numbers, all those graphs, it was all done by hand. Nothing went into the computer until I typed it into the computer. (TYPING)

 

RICH LEVINE: One inspired passage that Kevin transcribed reads:

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I have tried to develop a whole series of creative statistics which I hope will disclose the many nuances implicit in the maze of numbers. It seems strange that no consensus exists for what is the ideal formula for rating NBA players.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Martin was getting closer to landing on his dream stat, a number to replace points per game as the true indicator of basketball talent, a new vision for a globalizing sport born in a Kansas basement.

 

RICH LEVINE: But it turns out that writing a book on basketball statistics in the 1980s wasn’t easy. It was much more difficult, in fact, than writing a book on baseball. Baseball had annuals, books available to fans full of stats for each team. Basketball didn’t present stats at the same level. So Martin had to track down a lot of those numbers himself.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Research in those days meant sending off letters by snail mail, New York, the Federal Post Office. Who knows how long it would be before you got a response, if ever. There had been a handful of NBA basketball books written up to that point, but they were more the encyclopedia type. Fortunately, that’s really what I was looking for. The problem was that trying to get my hands on any of them was tough.

 

RICH LEVINE: Exhaustingly, tediously tough.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Between driving some distances to libraries that had one of the books I wanted and sporadic contact with the NBA, along with using the NBA guide and NBA register (put out annually-by The Sporting News), I was able to get all the NBA stats that had ever been made available up to that point in 1986.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Martin knew that once he had all the numbers he’d have a full palette of colors and could paint the complete picture of what he wanted people to see.

 

RICH LEVINE: But before he could take hold of the paint brush, he needed someone to program the software on his computer. You had to do that back then. A computer didn’t do much unless you told it how. So Martin put out an ad for a savvy programmer, and the universe brought him a young man named Todd Weller. (LAUGH)

 

TODD WELLER: As I remember, we’re sitting there discussing– probably details of what he wanted, and he’s sittin’ there eating with a letter opener.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin needed Todd to develop software that could help collect and track NBA stats and to calculate Martin’s formulas. But first Todd had to calculate just how much of a weirdo his new boss might be.

 

TODD WELLER: You know, like, a silver letter opener, these brownies and cuttin’ ’em off and eatin’ it and then all of a sudden, he (LAUGH) does this, where he–

 

RICH LEVINE: Which is what?

 

TODD WELLER: He scratches the back of his butt, you know, butt crack (LAUGH) or whatever and– then continues to eat with it. And I look at him kinda funny and he just kinda looks at me like, “What?” (SIGH)

 

RICH LEVINE: Man–

 

TODD WELLER: But that was Martin.

 

RICH LEVINE: What the hell? (LAUGH) Todd took the job anyway, unsavory letter opener etiquette and all. Martin now had his crew: a visionary, a salesman, a coder, real Topeka people.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: All they needed was a ticking clock in a Vegas casino and they coulda been in a heist movie.

 

RICH LEVINE: Kevin from RadioShack knew all about ticking clocks.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: We had a date. We were like, “We’ve gotta get it out by this date to have enough time for people to wanna buy it before the NBA season starts.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: What good is a seasonal comprehensive analysis after all if the season’s already started? What fan is gonna pay good money to read about his team when their best player already tore his ACL?

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin gave the book this tag line: the ultimate book for the ultimate fan. And the ultimate stats book would need the ultimate stat, a number that showed which players had the most value but beyond the box score, a number Martin had been thinking about since he first installed a satellite system at home and became obsessed with the game.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I just couldn’t stand to continue seeing players evaluated exclusively by points. I thought a simple but comprehensive formula could be used to evaluate a player’s complete game performance. What I came up with was the production rating. Never again would I be in the dark about which player really deserved the headlines. My dream, of course, was (and is), that no only could I be enlightened but so could basketball fans everywhere.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Production rating. This was Martin’s number. Thanks to Bill James, baseball’s general managers changed the value of on-base percentage. Could production rating change basketball? (TYPING)

 

MARTIN MANLEY: The problem with points as the primary indicator of value is, of course, because it is an oversimplified measurement. For example, who’s better? Dale Ellis, 25.8 points per game, or Magic Johnson, 19.6 points per game. We all know the answer to that question. Ellis is obviously good, but he’s no Magic. Therefore, if Seattle were to play Los Angeles it would be inadequate to look at Ellis scoring 26 points while Magic scored 20 and make any determination about who had the better game. Magic had seven more assists, two more rebounds, and one more steal. That changes the immediate impression given by the box score.

RICH LEVINE: Production rating squeezes all that other stuff, the good and the bad, into one tidy and–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And you about to drop the E-word?

 

RICH LEVINE: Oh, you know I am. (LAUGH) One tidy and efficient calculation.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: It won’t surprise anybody to know that basketball statistical data goes miles beyond production rating. But just use the following formula every time you peruse a box score and you’ll know which player won the game for his team, even if the newspaper doesn’t tell you: points plus rebounds assists plus blocks plus steals–

 

RICH LEVINE: That’s all the good stuff–

 

MARTIN MANLEY: –minus turnovers plus missed field goals plus missed free throws–

 

RICH LEVINE: And that’s all the bad stuff–

 

MARTIN MANLEY: –equals credits. Credits per season divided by games equals credits per game equals production rating.

 

RICH LEVINE: Basically, you add up the positive stats, then subtract the sum of the negatives.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: An example would be Michael Jordan during 1988. By applying the formula he earned 2,874 credits. Since he played in 82 games he had a production rating of 35.05.

RICH LEVINE: While Martin and his crew hammered away on Basketball Heaven, a Florida-based sports writer named Dave Heeren was working on a book of his own. Heeren had a stats and basketball pedigree. He spent a year in the ’60s as the statistician for the New York Knicks. And he created what is now recognized as basketball’s first advanced stats formula, Tendex.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Like production rating, Tendex calculates a player’s efficiency by adding and subtracting a series of values. But that sum is then divided by the player’s time on the court and multiplied by the pace of game.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: The aesthetic flaws are obvious. Charles Barkley ranked number one with the rating of 826. I don’t mean to sound critical–

 

RICH LEVINE: Oh, sure, Martin–

 

MARTIN MANLEY: –what is 826? How does it fit into our preexisting ideas of what an excellent rating means? Again, Magic Johnson had a production rating of 31.79. it follows very closely the parameters of scoring. 30-plus per game is super star.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin believed that basketball’s definitive efficiency formula should be something that any fan could easily calculate and understand.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Other formulas which end up with numbers that don’t fit into preexisting categories in our thinking just cannot be expected to catch on with the general public.

 

RICH LEVINE: The plan was now in place. Beat Heeren to publication and get Basketball Heaven into the world before the 1987 season. To do that, Martin changed his life in ways that might seem strange. But to those who knew him, this was just Martin being Martin.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I started skippin’ lunch because it meant takin’ a break, and I didn’t want no stinkin’ breaks. I never ate breakfast, so it turned into a lifestyle whereby I would eat once a day, supper.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: What was kind of interesting was Martin would work 48 hours straight and then he would go to bed for 10 hours, maybe 12, and then get up and do it all over again.

 

RICH LEVINE: Kevin eventually got in on the action as well.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: I didn’t work that schedule until we got down to the end, where we were kind of on a deadline. And then I pushed myself to do it. I’d say I did it for maybe a month. I’d push myself to meet his commitment at the end kinda to see if I could do it.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: When he finally had the manuscript in hand, Martin made a pilgrimage to see the stats guru himself, Bill James. Martin wanted the blessing of the guy who inspired him, and he also wanted a cover quote.

 

MALE VOICE: Martin was extremely excited about it ’cause, again, Bill James was the– he was the king of this genre, you know, and had done it in the baseball stuff. And having him right there in Lawrence was I think even more special for– for Martin.

 

RICH LEVINE: A quote from Bill James on the cover of Basketball Heaven would give the book legitimacy, validation. For Martin, going to see James was a huge moment, a meeting of two great math minds. This was Einstein meeting Niels Bohr northeast Kansas style.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Was he nervous?

 

KEVIN MAHAR: Martin?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yeah.

 

KEVIN MAHAR: Nah.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: He– he was just so sure of himself no matter–

 

KEVIN MAHAR: Martin was pretty sure about himself, yeah.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: When I met with Bill after the first book had been completed, he offered to put me in tough with his agent in New York City. Ultimately, she was able to get a book deal with Doubleday, and the rest is history.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin even returned home with a money quote from Bill James for the cover of his book.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: “Basketball Heaven is thorough, fresh, and occasionally brilliant, mainly systemic analysis of basketball from the time of George Mikan to the present is unlike anything I’ve ever seen about the sport. His research is massive, his writing lucid, and his approach novel.”

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin’s book now had the instant credibility he desired, and it was packed with stats and theories to keep fans busy for an entire season. He was on the fast track. The basketball world would simply have to recognize his genius.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: By February of 1989 Martin had written two editions of Basketball Heaven. A lot of work but that’s the game with almanacs. After a year the math is old. Every season a new version with updated numbers and predictions.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: To this point sales were slow, but that’s also the game here. This kinda thing takes time. Take Bill James, he sold fewer than 350 total copies of his first two editions.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And Martin wanted Basketball Heaven to be a kind of metaphysical breakthrough while also being a money-printing best-seller, or as he writes in his book–

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I don’t wanna be thought of as just a number-cruncher but rather a number creator, that is one who creates a measurement or a rating which otherwise would not have existed, one who discovers an important previously concealed bit of information that otherwise could not have been appreciated

RICH LEVINE: Though the public hadn’t yet embraced Basketball Heaven, Martin had made friends in high places. The second edition received an endorsement from Commissioner David Stern.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The influential, intimidating boss of the NBA.

 

RICH LEVINE: And I can just read this for ya right here, what the commissioner wrote. “Because of its original perspective, Basketball Heaven provides statistical insights and food for thought which will enhance the enjoyment of the game for even the most devoted NBA fan.”

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That’s the NBA equivalent of being made.

 

RICH LEVINE: And now he just had to convince the rest of the world.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Which was what he had a chance to do at the 1989 NBA All Star Weekend in Houston.

(MUSIC NOT TRANSCRIBED)

 

SPORTSCASTER: We are now inside a sold out Astrodome.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: His brown suit was camouflaged against the TBS set, his mustache twitched above his smirk. Martin was sitting with Fred Hickman. He looked both nervous and excited, cocky even. He’d done his homework. He was gonna ace the test. And when he did the game would change forever–

 

FRED HICKMAN: … before its all over. Joining me now is a legend in his own time, and he’s got a book to prove it. This is the book, Basketball Heaven. It is penned by Martin Manley. Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball. And Martin (UNINTEL)–

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin’s dream was now his new reality, and Fred Hickman was running things like a seasoned pro, a broadcasting point guard in a custom suit.

 

FRED HICKMAN: And, Martin, let’s talk about it right now. You’ve watched these teams all season long. Surprises in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland because they’re so good in the end, Indiana because they’re so bad–

 

RICH LEVINE: For some context here, at the 1989 All Star Break the Cleveland Cavaliers were the talk of the Eastern Conference, a lot like the ’24/’25 Cavs. They were the young upstarts running everyone off the court.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The Pacers, meanwhile, were a laughing stock, 11 and 35 and already on their fourth (yes, their fourth), head coach of the season.

 

FRED HICKMAN: Surprises in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland because they’re so good, Indiana because they’re so bad?

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Well, definitely those two are true. Along with those, naturally Milwaukee and Philadelphia both over-achieved this year somewhat, Milwaukee more so but they’ve bone done a tremendous job, far better than I think anybody thought they would.

RICH LEVINE: Honestly, not the worst start. A nice shout-out to the Bucks, who had won 19 of 24 games heading into the All Star Break. Martin’s just gettin’ loose. Let’s see where he went with it.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Aren’t too many other teams, other than Indiana, that have done that much worse than anybody thought. But then there aren’t that many more losses let– yet to be given out besides– what Indiana’s accomplished. So–

 

RICH LEVINE: Oh, no, Martin.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: It’s– it’s hard to parse that one.

 

RICH LEVINE: “There aren’t that many more losses yet to be given out besides what Indiana’s accomplished,” is hell of a way to say the Pacers stink.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The words, they just kinda stream out of him like air from a leaking balloon.

 

RICH LEVINE: I realize it’s Martin’s first time on TV but he was incredibly inefficient.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Martin might not have his touch, but Hickman throws the ball right back to him.

 

FRED HICKMAN: What about the Chicago Bulls, Michael and– the rest of the guys, what are they ever going to be able to do to– to give this a good cohesive team type of look?

 

RICH LEVINE: A little more context, through Michael Jordan’s first four seasons the Bulls were a combined 12 games under 500, and they won just a single playoff series. So it might sound weird now but asking back then if Jordan and the Bulls could ever get it together was not an uncommon question.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Which gave Martin a chance to say something out of the ordinary. And here’s the thing: Martin had written a deep preview of the Bulls ’89 season with compelling arguments and cogent analysis. From the second edition of Basketball Heaven:

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Some argue that Jordan tries to do too much. Nevertheless, Chicago was 27 and 14 when Michael scored in the thirties, 10 and four when he scored in the forties, and three and one in the fifties. Can anyone seriously suggest they would rather he score in the twenties, where Chicago’s record was 10 and 13?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That is an original, interesting opinion because while critics claim that young Michael Jordan was too focused on scoring, Martin’s numbers showed that the fewer points he scored, the worse the Bulls did.

 

RICH LEVINE: But wait, he’s got more. Martin closes out the preview in his book with a stat illustrating what happens when the young Jordan involves his teammates.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: When any of the two of the four (Grant, Pippen, Paxson, and Sellers), scored in double figures Chicago was 35 and 11. When less than two hit that magic mark the team was only 15 and 21.

 

RICH LEVINE: The Bulls win when Michael Jordan scores a lot, but they’re even better when his teammates chip in. So, Jordan should trust his teammates to sink some shots.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: This is an informed take and would’ve been perfect, prophetic even, to say in 1989.

 

RICH LEVINE: Perhaps Martin could’ve even just said, “The Bulls need to play more efficiently.”

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Always a great time to pull out the E-word. Martin could’ve said any of this stuff and essentially predicted the future.

 

FRED HICKMAN: What about the Chicago Bulls, Michael and– the rest of the guys, what are they ever going to be able to do to– to give this a good cohesive team type of look?

 

RICH LEVINE: Instead, he said this:

 

MARTIN MANLEY: It’s difficult to say. Obviously, when you’ve got a player like a Michael Jordan it gets extremely difficult to think what kind of pieces do you put with him to make it work out perfectly. With Magic or with Bird for some reason or another they have that ability to make all those other players fit into a cohesive unit. With Jordan, they’re tryin’ to fit the pieces in rather than them fitting in naturally.

 

RICH LEVINE: It’s difficult to say? Yeah, maybe for a non-genius. Martin had already solved the Jordan problem in his book. But now with the world watching he went with an ice-cold non-answer, hinting that for some vague reason Jordan’s Bulls weren’t as good at Bird’s Celtics or Magic’s Lakers.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: If you called into your sports radio station with that opinion, they would hang up.

 

MALE VOICE: Okay, Martin, that takes care of the Eastern Conference–

 

RICH LEVINE: After a video montage Martin and Hickman share an uninspiring back and forth about the Western Conference–

 

FRED HICKMAN: –surprise is the Phoenix Suns, the Golden State Warriors.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Right. Well, those are the two teams I think that are surprising (INAUDIBLE)–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And then at the end of the segment Martin does get one last shot. And, Rich, I think this is the part that bothers you the most.

 

RICH LEVINE: No, I just think it perfectly sums up where this life-altering opportunity just fell flat.

 

FRED HICKMAN: Gimme a quick prediction, will ya? Who’s gonna be in the NBA Finals? Real quick–

 

MARTIN MANLEY: NBA Finals, Lakers versus Pistons.

 

FRED HICKMAN: Okay.

 

RICH LEVINE: It’s just the most obvious take to take.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The blandest, coldest take. You have to give me something to take that take.

 

RICH LEVINE: The Lakers had beat the Pistons the year before in the 1988 Finals. Both teams were dominant again so far in ’99. This prediction was like picking only number one seeds in your Final Four bracket. You might end up being right but right or wrong, it’s lame.

 

FRED HICKMAN: Okay. We’ll– we’ll hold you to that.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I’ve really gone (UNINTEL).

 

RICH LEVINE: And for what it’s wort, the Lakers and Pistons did play again in the ’89 finals. So Martin was right.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yes. And water everywhere continued to be wet.

 

RICH LEVINE: For Martin, that was always the most important thing, being right. But to sell books you have to show people that you know something that they don’t.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: You don’t sell the sabermetrics. You sell the sizzle. It’s like gravity. It’s not impressive for you to say, “What comes up must come down.” The impressive part is showing your math that proves it. Martin had a chance to do that.

 

RICH LEVINE: To take a bit shot, something like, “Yeah, Fred, it’ll Lakers and Pistons once again. But this time Detroit will have LA’s number. You heard it here first.” “You heard it here first.” “Oh, did you know that the Pistons are shooting twice as many three-pointers as they did last year? “They get it, Fred. The future is now. The Pistons win.”

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Instead, Martin simply went with the chalk match-up. He didn’t even guess a winner. And then the interview ended.

 

FRED HICKMAN: Martin Manley, who is the author of– the great publication– Basketball Heaven. You gotta go out and pick it up. It’s terrific. We’re glad that he joined us. We hope you will come back with us (INAUDIBLE).

 

RICH LEVINE: Live on national television Martin never once mentioned Basketball Heaven.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Or production rating or three-pointers or even the word efficiency. It’s one thing if Martin failed as Martin, if he was too weird or if he used too many numbers.

 

RICH LEVINE: Or if he’d gone up there and rattled off the first two books of the bible.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yeah, I would watch that. But Martin wasn’t himself up there. He was the kind of cookie cutter NBA analyst that he would’ve scoffed at from his basement.

 

RICH LEVINE: He stayed in Houston for the rest of the weekend–

 

SPORTSCASTER: Chris Mullen and John Stockton–

 

RICH LEVINE: –and watched as the game ended with a 41-year-old Kareem Abdul-Jabbar hitting his signature shot.

 

SPORTSCASTER: Here’s the hook.

 

SPORTSCASTER: Oh, yes–

 

SPORTSCASTER: All right. That’s great–

 

SPORTSCASTER: Oh, God.

 

SPORTSCASTER: Standing O. (CHEERING) Wonderful. He hit the sky hook.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yep, the big tall man scored but not before the first two entry passes were stolen, leading to two highlight buckets from Michael Jordan, who grabbed the league’s torch as the game leapt into the ’90s. (WHISTLE)

 

SPORTSCASTER: Game is over and the West moved out to a big early lead, were threatened, and then came back and put ’em away. And Kareem Abdul-Jabar in his eighteenth All Star game–

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin left Houston without making a name for himself.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: He was boring, uninspired. He was perhaps his greatest fear: he was average.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: There is zero chance that I’m gonna wake up tomorrow or any time soon and decide that I’m no longer motivated to be different. I not only don’t wanna be the same as everyone else, I don’t wanna be the same as anyone else.

 

RICH LEVINE: He never appeared on national TV again. As far as anyone knew, Martin Manley disappeared. Gone but not entirely forgotten. Because while he failed on television and returned home, his book continued to travel.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Ending up in the hands of someone who would be a part of the revolution that would change the game forever.

 

MALE VOICE: The U Dub library had a copy of it when I was– a student at the University of Washington. It was definitely intriguing to me.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Next time on Chasing Basketball Heaven.

 

MALE VOICE: I realized I knew something at that moment that no one else in the world knew.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The field of basketball analytics grows, but Martin’s life takes another turn.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Chris and I drifted apart. I take 100% of the blame.

 

RICH LEVINE: And his obsession with efficiency pushes him in a startling new direction.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: I decided I wanted to have one of the most organized goodbyes in history, and I think I will be successful.

(MUSIC NOT TRANSCRIBED)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Chasing Basketball Heaven is a 30 for 30 Podcast produced by ESPN, Hyper Object Industries, and Meadowlark Media.

 

RICH LEVINE: It was reported and hosted by Nick Altschuller and Rich Levine with Craig Kilborn as the voice of Martin Manley.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Executive producers from Hyperobject Industries and Meadowlark Media are Adam McKay, Clare Slaughter, and Bradley Campbell.

 

RICH LEVINE: Senior editorial producer for 30 for 30 Podcasts is Preeti Varathan.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Our series senior producer was Raghu Manavalan.

 

RICH LEVINE: Our series producer was Gus Navarro.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Consulting producer was Gary Honig.

 

RICH LEVINE: Story editors were Jamie York and Mac Montandon.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Sound design and mixing by John DeLore.

 

RICH LEVINE: Theme song composed by Allison Leyton-Brown and John DeLore.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Show art by Brian Lutz.

 

RICH LEVINE: Becca Lish is the voice of Chris Tillman.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Fact-checking by Matt Giles and David Sabino.

 

RICH LEVINE: For 30 for 30 and ESPN line producer is Catherine Sankey.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Associate producer is Isabella Semen.

 

RICH LEVINE: Production assistants are Deamonte McKelvey and Anthony Sallas.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Producer is Carolyn Hepburn.

 

RICH LEVINE: Senior producers are Marquis Daisy and Gentry Kirby.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Heather Anderson, Marcia Cook, Brian Lockhart, and Burke Magnus are

 

executive producers for 30 for 30.

 

RICH LEVINE: Rights and clearances by Jennifer Thorpe and Kaal Griffith.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: This podcast was developed by Tara Nadolny and Cynthia Paribello.

 

RICH LEVINE: To listen to more sports series like this one search 30 for 30 Podcast wherever you listen to podcasts or find us at 30for30podcasts.com. Thanks for listening.