MARTIN MANLEY: The novel futility is about the maiden voyage of a fabulous ocean liner, a ship far larger than any previously built, and labeled unsinkable. The vessel set sail for New York from Southampton with a cargo of complacent passengers, strikes an iceberg en route, goes down.

 

The ship was called the Titan. So why didn’t author Morgan Robinson come out and say it? His Titan is obviously the Titanic. Both liners were touted as the biggest, most luxurious, and foolproof. Both were inadequately stocked with lifeboats, rug in heavy casualties.

 

And both sank at exactly the same spot in the North Atlantic, each on a cold, April night. How did the author get away with it? Because the novel that so accurately described history in reality foretold it in 1898, 14 years before the real-life Titanic set sail.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: So we’re walking here down a more narrow hallway here at the convention center. This is the– hall of research papers. In early 2025 Rich and I attended the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston.

 

RICH LEVINE: Since 2006 the conference has been bringing together some of the greatest and geekiest minds in sports data.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: This goes (UNINTEL) and come back.

 

RICH LEVINE: Yeah–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Okay, cool. The event was held in the Hynes Convention Center in the city’s Back Bay. It’s a gray, cavernous building that feels like someone put an old train station on the moon. It swallowed the thousands of statheads in attendance, people who had traveled from all over the world to be there.

 

RICH LEVINE: We went to Sloan to learn about the future of basketball, a future that might look very different from the present. That’s because ever since Steph Curry started routinely hitting threes from arena parking lots–

 

ARCHIVAL: Way downtown. Wow, oh what a shot from Curry.

 

RICH LEVINE: –a decade-long debate has grown in volume.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: How many three-point shots is too many?

 

RICH LEVINE: As team after team adopted the strategy popularized by Curry and the Warriors, the game has turned into a long-range shooting contest, pretty much what Martin was pushing for in Basketball Heaven. I remember looking back at that old Bulls-Celtics game from 1986 and noticing every single player standing inside the arc. Today, on any given possession, it’s common to see every offensive player behind the arc.

 

ARCHIVAL: That’s a three, and that’s number 29, becomes the all-time NBA record for three-point shots made in a game.

 

RICH LEVINE: By the time we hit the convention, threes had come to dominate play so thoroughly some NBA insiders were calling for the shot to be abolished.

 

ARCHIVAL: What if– we took away the three-point line? Who would be the best team in the NBA?

 

ARCHIVAL: That’s a good question.

 

ARCHIVAL: If you don’t have the extra point I think that would be a fun thing for the G League to experiment with it.

 

ARCHIVAL: Is this product a little monotonous with the threes? Yes it is.

 

ARCHIVAL: The three-point line in particular is something we’ll continue to look at.

 

RICH LEVINE: This conversation had us wondering, not only about if three-pointers were an endangered species, but what that change would mean for Martin Manley’s legacy.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Such as it is.

 

RICH LEVINE: Because another reason we hit Sloan was to find out how many of these number crunchers were even aware of Martin and his work. Do any of these people know Martin Manley? Do they understand his role in kind of kicking off this whole shebang? And what’s your guess?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: I’m gonna say one out of ten.

 

RICH LEVINE: One out of ten?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yeah–

 

RICH LEVINE: So 10% of the– the kids here are gonna know the name Martin Manley?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yes. I might hold the book up. (LAUGHTER)

 

RICH LEVINE: We soon learned that Nick’s guess was wildly optimistic. You ever heard the name Martin Manley? How about the name Martin Manley?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Have you heard the name Martin Manley?

 

MALE VOICE: No, I have not.

 

RICH LEVINE: How about– the name Martin Manley?

 

MALE VOICE: No.

 

MALE VOICE: No.

 

MALE VOICE: No, I have not. I’m not familiar with–

 

RICH LEVINE: Have you ever heard the name Martin Manley?

 

MALE VOICE: Who?

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin Manley.

 

MALE VOICE: (UNINTEL) Martin Manley? Is that you guys?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: No, no.

 

RICH LEVINE: No. He was one of, like, the pioneers of basketball analytics that– we’re learning that not that many people know about anymore.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: There was a time when people did know Martin’s name, people like David Stern and Fred Hickman. And now here we were at Sloan, searching for any evidence of his impact.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin was a man who’d gone to great lengths to craft a lasting legacy. And as we’d learn, maybe that was the problem.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: From 30 for 30 Podcasts.

 

RICH LEVINE: I’m Rich Levine.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: I’m Nick Altschuller. Today, the final episode of Chasing Basketball Heaven, episode six, occasionally brilliant.

 

RICH LEVINE: When we weren’t assessing Martin Manley’s legacy.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Such as it is.

 

RICH LEVINE: We were talking to anyone we could about the future of basketball, and attending panels like this one.

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: Good morning everyone. It’s my pleasure to introduce today’s conversation, Have the Nerds Ruined Basketball, a conversation (UNINTEL)–

 

RICH LEVINE: That panel featured a conversation about a concept we’ve danced around for much of this series: when do analytics and efficiency go too far?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That is to say, has the three-point shot ruined the sport?

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: And I’m gonna ask the panelists to address this question. Is this a problem for the game, because there’s people out there that are saying it makes it less interesting, there’s no creativity, there’s no imagination, the game has become a three-point shooting competition.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The moderator, Harvard Business School professor Deepak Malhotra.

 

RICH LEVINE: Was speaking with Evan Wasch, the NBA’s VP of strategy of and analytics. Also Daryl Morey, the 76ers president of basketball operations, a noted three-point advocate who you might remember we spoke to earlier in the show. However, that day at the Sloan conference Morey argued from an unlikely position.

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: So Daryl, we’ll start with you. Do you think this is a problem?

 

DARYL MOREY: I do, yeah. I think game design is important. I don’t think it’s the– the fault of the teams or the– the analysts out there, because their job is just to win. But it’s 50% more than the other shots. That’s simply too much. It essentially breaks the game.

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: I’m gonna let Evan go next on– on what you think about this. Do you agree?

 

EVAN WASCH: I do not. (LAUGHTER) A game design or a rule in and of itself cannot be a problem. It is only a problem if the style of play that results from that is not exciting to fans–

 

DARYL MOREY: And we’re already there at three, so congratulations–

 

EVAN WASCH: That is your belief.

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: So let– let’s get a couple more–

 

RICH LEVINE: Nick, we’ve talked about this a little bit. How serious do you think these guys were? Is this a genuine rivalry or are they kind of just, like, playing it up for the crowd?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: It came across like wrestling– a little fake show but the slaps were real.

 

RICH LEVINE: There was some real animosity in there, maybe.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Blood was drawn.

 

RICH LEVINE: Yes. (LAUGH)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: People got red in the the face.

 

RICH LEVINE: Also on the panel were Celtics exec Mike Zarren, once a member of that data-focused Yahoo group that Dean Oliver ran, and basketball legend Sue Bird, she of four WNBA titles, two NCAA championships, and five gold medals. Bird made the second-most three-pointers in WNBA history, but she also saw how the shot hurt the aesthetics and the pace of the game.

 

SUE BIRD: I feel like I am sitting between my divorced parents. (LAUGHTER) I’m– ’cause I’m a mid-range shooter at heart, but I wanna win. So I’m like, which parent am I choosing? It’s difficult. I will say this: I don’t think the game is broken. I still find it very entertaining.

 

SUE BIRD: I think people find it entertaining. But I will say, I– I did go to– randomly, a college pick-up game the other day. A college kid so, you know, at best mediocre, college kid, like, student, not athlete. Okay, (UNINTEL) to the top of the key, pump-faked, and instead of taking the one dribble in for the pull up side-stepped for a three.

 

MALE VOICE: That sounds familiar.

 

SUE BIRD: Clang. Like, terrible shot. The– obviously. And I thought to myself, like, “Ugh, Daryl.” (LAUGHTER) Like ’cause (UNINTEL)–

 

MALE VOICE: But here’s the thing–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: But ultimately, in a panel full of sharp insight, it was one line from Morey to Malhotra that really got our attention.

 

DARYL MOREY: The three-point line was 100% good when it was put in, and as you know well ’cause you wrote a case on it, people didn’t use it well at the beginning.

 

RICH LEVINE: Wait a second, we spent the last two years wondering how it took the NBA so long to start shooting threes and this guy wrote a whole case study on it?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That’s what our close friend Daryl said.

 

RICH LEVINE: After the panel we had to track him down.

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: My name is Deepak Malhotra. I’m a professor at the Harvard Business School, where I’ve been for the last– 23 years. And my area of work is primarily in negotiations, deal making, and conflict.

 

RICH LEVINE: Malhotra’s case study examined three-point shot usage. He wanted to figure out why it took so long for the NBA to utilize the clear and significant advantages presented by the three-point line. He asked questions like.

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: Why do organizations sometimes not learn? And why do people have models in their head that maybe aren’t accurate, but they persist?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: In other words, why did it take decades for the three-pointer to go from afterthought to core principle?

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: The math is pretty straightforward, right? You know, if you’re far away from the hoop being another couple of feet even farther and getting 50% more points is a pretty good idea. So that’s– the math is totally clear. And so whenever you see a situation where something seems obvious and it’s not happening, it’s already interesting.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Obvious change is blocked by numerous factors. First, there’s the analytical. The math may be persuasive but the coach may have counterarguments.

 

RICH LEVINE: If we start shooting a lot of threes won’t our offense become predictable?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Second, we have cultural barriers. Three is more than two is an airtight mathematical argument. That logic doesn’t immediately make sense on the court.

 

RICH LEVINE: Hey guys, I know it’s been drilled in you since birth to love the easy layup, like, so much so that a layup has become synonymous with something easy. But what I need you to do now is start shooting from 25 feet away.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And lastly there’s the psychology involved.

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: If you’re being inefficient and everybody else is inefficient you don’t have that same pressure. There was an old saying– you know, in the ’80s and ’90s, nobody ever got fired for buying IBM. And the basic notion was listen, as long as you’re doing something that you can justify to other people why you did it, even if things don’t go well, you’re safe.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Why take a big risk when what you’re risking is your job? After all, it’s rare to get in trouble for conforming.

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: Often what looks simple and straightforward mathematically can have a lot of layers of complexity in terms of actually going from an idea to implementation in an organization. Because there is this general tendency for people to believe that if it was a great idea somebody would’ve come up with it already.

 

DEEPAK MALHOTRA: Not to mention a lot of the folks that are coming up with the ideas don’t have the access that they need to make a difference. So you may have a research paper, you may have written a book, et cetera. But you’re not necessarily on the inside anyway. So it is very hard to have an impact. But it doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen, it just takes different channels to make it happen.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: What Malhotra said there really made me think about Martin, about his apparent failed attempt to make an impact. He wrote Basketball Heaven to shift the way we all saw the game, but no one bought the book. Still, he played a part in changing how numbers are treated in the NBA, and the field of sports analytics eventually exploded around him. Rich and I were curious to see what this explosion meant for the next generation of Moneyballers, so we wandered the conference to meet them.

 

RICH LEVINE: As we headed out to the main floor we heard a rumble building in the distance, like we were about to get trampled by a stampede of math-obsessed bulls.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Reminded me of my days in Pamplona.

 

RICH LEVINE: What, did you sell cotton candy there? (LAUGH)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: On the floor we quickly learned how to read the dress code. Nice suits, red lanyards, those were executives and they weren’t stopping to talk. Sweatsuits, team logos, those people already work for a team and appeared very relaxed.

 

RICH LEVINE: But they weren’t there to do interviews either. Can I ask you a quick question?

 

MALE VOICE: Sorry, I have to head to a meeting.

 

RICH LEVINE: Oh okay, we’ve heard that one before. (LAUGH)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Tight suits, cuffs ending three inches above the shoes, those were the up-and-comers, students or young professionals on the grind, hoping to get their resume in the right hands.

 

RICH LEVINE: And let me tell you, they did want to talk.

 

AUSTIN PETERSON: And so I would love less time outs.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Austin Peterson, based in Austin, Texas, crunches numbers for a sales and marketing firm, but has some thoughts on how to improve the NBA product.

 

AUSTIN PETERSON: I know there’s revenue issues with commercials and stuff like that, I totally get it. I like money too, we all like money. But the, like, just more flow to the game, which requires the players to make more decisions in real time I think would be great.

 

RICH LEVINE: Then there was Hallie Nuccio, a senior at Butler University and well on her way to efficiently navigating the real world.

 

HALLIE NUCCIO: So I already have a job lined up with the NCAA starting in April. I’m gonna be an enterprise risk management analyst. But I do, like– the head of data analytics for the football team at Butler and the head of a data analytics project for the basketball team, so.

 

RICH LEVINE: What– what project are you working on for basketball?

 

HALLIE NUCCIO: So we do biometrical analytics, so the Kinexon chips that they wear in the back of their, like, shirts, basically analyze those after every practice and games, that way the coaches can plan better practices, things like that–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: See who’s slacking. (LAUGH)

 

RICH LEVINE: We also met Koi Stephanos, one of 15 researchers invited to the conference to present their work and participate in an annual poster competition.

 

KOI STEPHANOS: I work for the Hornets, yeah. This is the last vestige of my research career, so this is–

 

RICH LEVINE: Can you give us, like, a quick, like, elevator pitch of what we’re–

 

KOI STEPHANOS: Absolutely.

 

RICH LEVINE: –what we’re learning here? Yeah.

 

KOI STEPHANOS: So fundamentally I’m interested in what happens when you miss. So what we’re basically saying is there’s other ways to create positive value when you miss. Namely you get the board, you put it back in. So in order to quantify that.

 

RICH LEVINE: What happens when you miss? When you put yourself in the best position to succeed, give it your best shot, and it still doesn’t go in? There’s a resiliency to being efficient. It’s not the cliché that you miss every shot that you don’t take, it’s the reality that you also miss a majority of the shots that you do take, especially when it comes to three-pointers. Koi obviously knows this. When it comes to basketball and analytics, he seems to know it all.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Do you have an opinion on, like, who the Bill James of basketball is?

 

KOI STEPHANOS: I think Dean Oliver has probably got the claim to that. I think he was the first person to be paid by a sports team to do analytics. So I w– I would probably say Dean. I think– he was really influential to, like, (UNINTEL)–

 

RICH LEVINE: So far not a single person at this conference had known the name Martin Manley. But Koi, we had a feeling about Koi. He might be our angel from basketball heaven. I think he’s the guy.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Really?

 

RICH LEVINE: Yup.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: You know who Martin Manley is?

 

KOI STEPHANOS: I’m bad with names. No. Maybe?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: You ever– the book Basketball Heaven?

 

KOI STEPHANOS: No.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: He was sort of maybe the original, like, three is better than two guy.

 

KOI STEPHANOS: Interesting, okay.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yeah.

 

RICH LEVINE: That is what it sounds like when you miss. I had faith in you, Koi. (LAUGH)

 

KOI STEPHANOS: Sorry.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: None of the young statisticians at Sloan knew Martin’s name. None of them could see their connection to him, but we did. The shared obsession, the drive, we could imagine a young Martin hustling through those halls, pitching his formulas, promoting the three.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That Martin would be here laughing, pontificating with his peers and correcting their math. If anything, our trip to the Sloan conference only made our reckoning with Martin’s legacy more complicated. His biggest basketball fantasy had bloomed into reality and been adopted by the league, perhaps too enthusiastically.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: But his influence went unrecognized. His name, mostly forgotten. But perhaps it’s less important how many people remember you but who and how well. There was one man we could think of who could make sense of all this and put Martin’s work in the proper context. It was time to climb the metaphorical mountain. It was time to meet Bill James.

 

RICH LEVINE: We’ve reached the top of the mountain, Nick. Do you feel any more nervous now than you were two seconds ago in the car?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: A little bit.

 

RICH LEVINE: Bill James lives on a brick road just off the main drag in the college town of Lawrence, Kansas. The street is lined with old colonials, the kind of houses that bring to mind town leaders and college professors.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: James’s house is dark blue with a wraparound porch, home to an old black lab lying in the sun. Immediately, just from the eye test, he’s a five-tool dog. My guess was his name was Fred Lynn, the old star outfielder for the Red Sox.

 

RICH LEVINE: I went with Nap Lajoie, an early 20th century second baseman for Philadelphia and Cleveland.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: I’m gonna ring the bell here.

 

RICH LEVINE: I hope he’s home. He’s supposed to be here.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Catch the man in his pajamas. Oh, here he comes.

 

RICH LEVINE: Mr. James.

 

BILL JAMES: Yes.

 

RICH LEVINE: How are you?

 

BILL JAMES: I– I’m good. Yourself?

 

RICH LEVINE: Rich.

 

BILL JAMES: Hi Rich, nice to meet you.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Nick, pleasure to meet you.

 

BILL JAMES: Hi Nick. Come on in.

 

RICH LEVINE: Oh, thank you sir.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Thank you. Bill James keeps a wicker basket full of baseball gloves in his entryway. It sits at the feet of a giant, wooden baseball player.

 

RICH LEVINE: Who’s this– statue of here?

 

BILL JAMES: It’s not (UNINTEL). It’s just a statue of a baseball player.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: It’s not Mike Schmidt? (LAUGH)

 

RICH LEVINE: Looks like him, got the Schmidt mustache.

 

BILL JAMES: That’s a good point. We’ll start calling him Mike. (LAUGHTER)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Oh, and the dog, as I’m sure many of you are wondering, is named Amos, for Amos Otis, center fielder for the Royals from 1970 to 1983.

 

RICH LEVINE: You watch the Jayhawks here?

 

BILL JAMES: Yeah.

 

RICH LEVINE: You still watch every one?

 

BILL JAMES: Oh yes.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Wow.

 

RICH LEVINE: Bill is 75 years old. As he led us through his living room, we saw pictures of him with U.S. presidents on the mantle. His dining room is lined with knickknacks and souvenirs, like a shelf of stone elephants, a Kansas Jayhawks nesting doll. We sat at his table under a picture of a baseball field at night, painted by his wife Susan. It’s all evidence of a life well-lived.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Bill had a stroke in 2024, but he still has his fastball. Right away he flashed the familiar traits of a great sports analyst.

 

RICH LEVINE: Like, what’s your workday? Is it, like, 6:00 a.m. to– to 9:00 p.m. sorta stuff? Or?

 

BILL JAMES: I think my bad habit of getting my work done in the middle of the night probably goes way, way back. I was up till 4:30 this morning, you know? That’s–

 

RICH LEVINE: This morning.

 

BILL JAMES: This morning, yeah. And– that’s pretty normal for me. That’s why you guys asked about coming at 10:00, I don’t know if I can do 10:00.

 

RICH LEVINE: Like Martin, Bill grew up in small-town Kansas, keeping busy with statistics and make believe. Martin created his own fantasy leagues while Bill made his own baseball cards. Both dealt with challenging circumstances.

 

BILL JAMES: I don’t know how dysfunctional Martin’s childhood was. You know, but it couldn’t possibly have been more dysfunctional than mine. But it’s been a long time, and you know, I’m 75 years old.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Also like Martin, Bill was convinced he was on the right path and thought others might follow.

 

BILL JAMES: The central realization was not that there is a way that analytical thinking will help resolve these issues. The central realization was that there was an audience that was interested in the subject, and that no one was writing to that– audience.

 

BILL JAMES: When I started out, you absolutely would not believe how many people told me that, “I’m interested in what you’re doing but you’ll never make a living doing it because there aren’t enough people who are interested in it.” So many people told me that that I knew that it could not possibly be true.

 

RICH LEVINE: Baseball Abstract did have meager beginnings. Only several dozen copies of the book sold in its first year. But eventually the book took off, and Bill had a remarkable influence on America’s pastime.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Something that Bill never saw coming.

 

BILL JAMES: Well, I– I never envisioned myself as having any impact on the game at all. I was– I was quite astonished that people actually started using my ideas and applying them in the g– I never– I wasn’t trying to influence anyone.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Martin stopped writing Basketball Heaven after year three. Fiscally the numbers didn’t add up. Bill, however, kept going. He told us his third Abstract sold only about 400 copies. His career changing Sports Illustrated article didn’t come out until after his fifth book. Bill had his eyes on a vast horizon, not the pinched box score of a tiny royalty check. And that is where the career paths of these two men diverge.

 

BILL JAMES: Martin was organized and intelligent and a businessman by nature, right? I’m a writer by nature. And it’s a different thing. Martin was thinking, you know, “I’ll do this and it’s this much work and it has to pay off in this time frame or it’s not worth doing.” Whereas I didn’t think of those terms. So it’s like, I just wanted to know how to do it. I’m gonna do it. And– and– that was a critical difference between us.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Would there have been a tipping point for you, like, if seven Abstracts in and you weren’t hitting 1,000 subscribers would you have been like, “Oh, maybe I’ll try something else”?

 

BILL JAMES: When you first write a book you have no concept to how much work it is until you do it. I don’t know if any of you ever– have ever written a book, but–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: I tried and I failed.

 

BILL JAMES: It’s an immense amount of work. So after the first book, and after the second, and after the third, and probably after the fourth, I would say, “I’m never doing that again.”

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Would you have encouraged him to keep going, or?

 

BILL JAMES: Well, you know, you– keep going means you have to keep paying the price. And– you can’t tell someone to keep paying the price.

 

RICH LEVINE: The price Bill speaks of can come in many different forms. We can’t be sure which price ultimately pushed Martin to quit writing his books. What we do know is the as a business venture, Basketball Heaven failed. But as a work of analysis, the book earned the respect of Bill James. More importantly, so did Martin Manley.

 

BILL JAMES: I lived in– north of town, 25 miles north of town at that time. And– and when he started doing Basketball Heaven he– he wrote to me, and– and I said, “Sure, come out and see me.” And, you know, we went to a couple baseball games together. And–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Oh wow.

 

RICH LEVINE: So do– do you remember those games? Do you remember– what do you remember about Martin?

 

BILL JAMES: Very bright young man. And– and I expected it to– I don’t know what extent I should– should talk about it, but the– (DOG) after his death, I– there were things that he said that you would look back on and say, “Oh, I could see that– I could’ve seen that coming.” Or– or, I– he was– I thought he– his book would succeed to an extent that it did not. I thought– I thought his book would catch on.

 

RICH LEVINE: Would it be possible, could we have you read your cover quote that you wrote for Martin if I–

 

BILL JAMES: Sure.

 

RICH LEVINE: –if I have it right here? Just right on the notes section right there.

 

BILL JAMES: All right. (THROAT CLEAR) “Basketball Heaven is thorough, fresh, and occasionally brilliant. Manley’s systematic analysis of basketball from the time of George Mikan to the present is unlike anything I’ve ever seen about the sport. His research is massive, his writing lucid, and his approach novel.”

 

RICH LEVINE: And then our producer, Raghu Manavalan, interjected to highlight one line in particular.

 

RAGHU MANAVALAN: We all laughed about “occasionally brilliant.”

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Sometimes when I’m feeling a little ornery towards Martin I go, “Occasionally brilliant,” (LAUGHTER) as a joke, but you did it too.

 

BILL JAMES: I’m sure I didn’t mean it that way. (LAUGHTER)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: You were just being honest. That’s an accurate assessment–

 

BILL JAMES: Yeah. Nobody’s– nobody’s brilliant on every page.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yeah. While it was nice hearing Martin get some love from the master, there was something Bill had said in passing I which curious about. You said when you read it you thought, like, “Oh, I should’ve seen something coming.”

 

BILL JAMES: Right.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: What was it that you s–

 

BILL JAMES: I remember Martin talking about– his wife wanted kids, and he didn’t. He didn’t want to, you know, he wanted to concentrate on his career and his businesses. And– his– but his wife wanted kids. And that, of course, led to breakup of the marriage. And I should’ve c– seen that coming. You know, I knew about it. He talked about it. I should’ve seen that coming.

 

RICH LEVINE: Shoulda seen that coming. It’s a familiar reaction for those of us left behind. Unfortunate, the picture often becomes clearer after the tragedy happened. In the middle of life it’s hard to see a person as the complete and complex being they are. In a way we’re all just looking at one another underwater. We see the murky shape of a life, but never an entire, clear image.

 

BILL JAMES: My wife and I, we just took a vacation in New Mexico. And my wife went whitewater rafting, which I did not, and do not. It’s, like, the fourth time she’s gone. And– I ain’t doing that. And her kayak or canoe turned over, and she’s in the water.

 

BILL JAMES: And it’s rock. And, you know, it’s– I think of what happened to Martin as being like– not that he went down the wrong river, but that his kayak turned over and he hit his head on the rock, and there was– it was an end, but it wasn’t an inevitable end. It was just something that happened.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The reasons behind it are impossible to know, no matter how hard you study the problem, no matter what math you apply to the mysteries of fate, which is why we still find ourselves asking, why did Martin kill himself, despite him providing an almost 10,000 word answer. Why did one sports analyst succeed while his friend down the road, similar man, different sport, flamed out?

 

BILL JAMES: There were people trying to do things sort of like what I was trying to do in the 1970s who completely failed. And the biggest thing, the f– reason that they failed was that they– they made it about themselves and they– rather than about the game. The biggest reason that I succeeded where they failed is that I didn’t think in those terms. I thought in terms of growing the field, and I still do. It’s– and– I still do every day. It’s just part of–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Is that– could you say, like, that’s thinking about your legacy?

 

BILL JAMES: Because I’m old I guess it is. But– when I started doing it it was thinking about the future.

 

RICH LEVINE: Do you think about your legacy?

 

BILL JAMES: I think about, you know, how I’d be remembered, if I’ll be remembered, when I’ll be remembered.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: When I don’t know, but if, yes. You will.

 

RICH LEVINE: I mean, if you’re– if you’re not gonna be remembered the three of us have no chance. (LAUGH)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: This was a thought Rich and I were growing more comfortable with, because we often consider our legacies too. We began this story hoping to create something we could be proud of, something that would last. But that second part is completely out of our control. I think about my father’s legacy, imagine what he thought about it and whatever role I play in defining it. Now I know the best thing I can do for my legacy is the best that I can do for my son’s.

 

RICH LEVINE: It’s now been more than a decade that Martin Manley has owned real estate in my brain. Nick and I have considered his story from every angle you can imagine. One thing that’s become clear, legacy is an inefficient motivator.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Our legacy lives in a future we’ll never see. We can work toward it, but never touch it. No matter how we optimize our time or play the percentages, tomorrow our shots may miss.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin overthinking his legacy, sacrificing himself on the altar of efficiency, was perhaps an ironic waste of time.

 

BILL JAMES: It’s unfortunate that he thought that he had no legacy. My father was a small town school janitor, but I could still go to that small town where we grew up and I can see trees that he planted and sidewalks that he poured and porches that he built on people’s houses.

 

BILL JAMES: And this comes, again, from baseball. But in baseball, everybody who plays the game well leaves behind– his imprint in the game somehow or somewhere. It’s like when you see a game that you’re seeing a continuation of a game that was played in 1928, because all those people played then somehow contributed to reshaping the game.

 

BILL JAMES: And I’m sorry that Martin didn’t see that, but it’s true anyway, that we all leave things behind us that are– are part of the world long after we’re gone. I mean, you’re part of the– you’re part of the river. And, you know, occasionally the river kills you, but you– it moves on, whether you’re swimming in it or pissing in it, you know?

 

MARISSA WELSH: My boyfriend and I at the time, we didn’t have anywhere to live. So we were going to live in his parents’ trailer. Hadn’t been lived in for years and needed a lotta work.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: In the last few months of Martin’s life, his stepdaughter Marissa was going through a rough patch in college, battling anxiety attacks.

 

MARISSA WELSH: So Martin would drive down and there was no air conditioning, no running water, no nothing. But he would work in the– oh god, it was probably 110° inside that trailer. And he fixed it up for us. Fixed the walls and the plumbing and painted it and got it all ready so that we could move it to Manhattan to live in.

 

RICH LEVINE: Manhattan, Kansas.

 

MARISSA WELSH: He knew that we didn’t have a washer and dryer for it and– so he offered us his. And I asked, “Well, aren’t you gonna need it?” And he said, “No, I’m– I’m moving somewhere and I’m not gonna need it.” And I was like, “So are they gonna have one there for you?”

 

MARISSA WELSH: And he, like, was weird about the answer. He didn’t wanna lie and say, like, “Yeah, I’m– I’m moving to a new place, they’ve got a washer and dryer for me.” He just kept insisting, “I don’t need it.” So I said, “Okay, all right. We’ll– we’ll take it, I guess.”

 

MARISSA WELSH: And– the night before– the night before he killed himself he– called me and I almost answered because I just had this feeling. But I didn’t answer. And he left a voicemail, which I still have on my phone if you wanna hear it. It’s– him just saying that the washer and dryer are gonna be at my– my mom’s, and that he loves me. And– that was the last I heard from him. Like, I knew it was gonna happen and I should’ve stopped it.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Hey Marissa, it’s Martin. It’s– about 10:00– about 10:50 on Wednesday. Anyway– your washer and dryer are at your mom’s, and– also your chair is at your mom’s. So everything is out of here– and at your mom’s, so you can get it whenever, you know, works out for you. But I just wanted to make sure you knew that. (UNINTEL) bye. Oh, by the way, love you.

 

RICH LEVINE: When we first stumbled on Martin’s story he was always described in the national media as twice divorced, no children. And a lot of that was Martin’s doing. It helped him rationalize and write about his suicide. But the biggest realization from our visit with Marissa is that the no kids part wasn’t exactly true.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: It’s clear that he loved you deeply.

 

MARISSA WELSH: He really did. And– that’s why it hurt so much. Not only losing someone to suicide, it’s always, always hard– but I could understand it a lot more if he was severely depressed and made a split-second decision. The fact that he took so long to plan it and made such a thought-out decision to leave me, especially knowing, being the only person to know of the issues I was starting to have, he knew how it would affect me and break me. But he did it– he did it anyway. It’s a lot harder to understand that.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Are you angry?

 

MARISSA WELSH: Yeah. I’m angry. I’ve gone through a lot of emotions about it over the years, but– anger is definitely one of them. I– he made sure to be around for my sister’s graduation. I was only a year or two from that when it happened. And I wanted him to see me graduate and get married and have kids. And he knew how much I loved him. He knew how close we were. And he chose to abandon me. And– that makes me angry.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Near the end of our conversation with Marissa we asked her about one particular Martin story that had stuck in our minds since the moment we first heard it. Do you remember May 4th, 2003, the tornado?

 

MARISSA WELSH: Oh god, yes. (LAUGH) I remember about the tornado. I am never gonna forget that. It’s–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Can you tell us the story–

 

MARISSA WELSH: –one of my core memories–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: –of the tornado? (LAUGHTER)

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin remembered it too. He wrote about it on his website in a section called KC Tornado.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: My brother and sister were in town visiting, and we had gone to the Royals game the night before. Rather than taking a second Royals game the following day, we decided to go to Kansas City to watch the dog races. I knew nothing about the sport then, and I know nothing about it now, only that a bunch of dogs run around a track at blinding speeds. After about half the card, the clouds started getting nasty. Shortly after that they announced a funnel cloud had been seen a couple miles southwest of the Kansas Speedway.

 

MARISSA WELSH: All of a sudden they wanted us to get away from the windows. And then they announced that there was a tornado and it was coming by, close. And we had to get even further into the building. Till eventually we end up in a stairwell that’s small and cramped.

 

MARISSA WELSH: And here we are, me and my sister, and our step-uncle, I guess he would be, who we barely knew. It was the first time we were meeting him. And he’s the one who’s got us huddled in there and comforting us, because Martin decides he has to get pictures of this thing.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: When I turned around to go back outside, one of the officials at the Woodlands tried to stop me. “You can’t go out there,” he said. I replied with the only thing that came to me. “I’m a professional photographer and this is my job.” Of course, I just had this little 35 millimeter camera and barely even knew how to push the click button.

 

MARISSA WELSH: So he’s out there in the middle of the parking lot, taking pictures of this F4 tornado. It was almost a five. And he’s right up close to it, taking these pictures. (LAUGH) He just– he had no fear.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Do you have fear? Are you thinking you’re gonna see him swept up in this moment–

 

MARISSA WELSH: Oh my god, yes. I thought he was gonna be gone and we were all gonna die. I mean, I– (LAUGH) I especially as a child was just very fearful of anything and everything. So I was terrified, crying my eyes out. And when they told us that Martin would not come inside and he was refusing to come inside, I– I was bawling. I– I couldn’t believe it. I was so mad and scared.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin, meanwhile, as usual thought he had it all under control.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: It was immediately apparent to me that it would miss the parking lot to the south and travel by us on the east, so I knew I was safe. I watched it duck in behind the horse racing track, and then later, as it danced away to the east.

 

MARISSA WELSH: And still, for a long time after, I was mad at him. I was mad at him for risking himself, but for also putting me in that position to be that afraid of losing him just for some pictures. “Oh, it’s okay. It was always gonna be all right. I wasn’t that close to it. They were just freaking out over nothing, it’s fine. I just wanted to get some pictures.”

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: That’s a good Martin impression. (LAUGH)

 

MARISSA WELSH: Thank you.

 

RICH LEVINE: I think the reason we love the tornado story is that it captures the most distilled version of Martin.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: The desire, almost compulsion, to stand out.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: Most of the people there thought I was insane. Of course, they’re right, duh. But it is a badge of honor I wear proudly.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Martin would be the guy to March out of the crowd while everyone else sensibly ducked for cover, the guy who ran the numbers and was so confident in one outcome, maybe he didn’t fully consider what else he was risking. A man who had to document the moment, to leave evidence of what he had accomplished. A moment that was courageous and needless, charming and frustrating. As we heard time and time again, that was Martin being Martin.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: If insane means abnormal, count me in.

 

RICH LEVINE: In the days after our trip to see Bill and Marissa, Nick and I talked a lot about the idea of legacy. One thing we concluded: Bill James didn’t set out to become Bill James, and that’s why it happened. He was just a person with a passion, hoping to sell enough copies of his annual Abstract to earn the same as a Kansas public school teacher. And if that’s all that ever happened, he would say he was a success.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Martin tried to be the Bill James of basketball, and that’s part of the reason it didn’t work. He could’ve leaned into his biggest strength, his singular personality. That’s what he did on the website, now read more than Basketball Heaven ever was.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: At some point in reading this site you would’ve asked whether I was ultimately satisfied with my life. So I decided this was the best place to address it: I suspect nobody is completely satisfied, and I’m no different. No, I wasn’t fully satisfied with my life. But I was fully satisfied with my death.

 

RICH LEVINE: On his website, Martin shared a side of himself that his friends and family hadn’t seen, actually many sides, the light, the dark, a recipe for fruit slushes. He finally opened up and the world came in. Now his legacy might be shifting again. He’s the subject of this six-part audio documentary, and an enduring obsession for us.

 

RICH LEVINE: He’s given us so much. Hell, without Martin we would’ve never gone to see Bill James. We wouldn’t have had the chance to ask one of the wisest people we’ve ever met the biggest questions about life. Nick and I, minus the vast success, are very similar to where you were about 30 years ago. You know, mid-40s, young kids, just trying to get through every day and just make ends meet, really. I was wondering if you– if you– what kind of advice you might have for us, for– just how to make the best of what lies ahead.

 

BILL JAMES: Oh, the advice would be find what the– other people are– are not doing and figure out what other people do not know. I mean– all power of analytics in baseball comes from knowing things that other people do not know. What makes you special is what you know that other people do not know. Because, you know, we’re– a small island of knowledge in a vast sea of ignorance. And– and it’s– so– that– that’s what I would encourage you to do, is figure out something that other people are not doing and do that.

 

RICH LEVINE: What makes you special is what you know that other people do not know. We think that Martin understood this, and on good days that idea pushed him toward greatness. All right– we are about 18 miles I think southwest of Topeka. During one of our conversations with Martin’s sister, Barbie, she told us that after Martin died his first wife, Chris, had ordered him a headstone. An email from Chris confirmed the location.

 

CHRIS TILLMAN: It is just off 89th. I think it is Hawk Road. There’s a small green sign just before the turnoff to the cemetery.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: So we’re turning into the cemetery road and we’re going up a slight hill. And literally the hill just goes right into the sky. It’s like the end of the world.

 

RICH LEVINE: It’s like an infinity hill.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: It’s crazy.

 

RICH LEVINE: We can turn in here. So we’re turning onto a gravel–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: (UNINTEL) right by this tree.

 

CHRIS TILLMAN: I’m remembering row eight, but not 100% sure.

 

RICH LEVINE: So that’s one, that’s two, that’s three, that’s four, that’s five. This would be six. Oh, Tillman. That’s– that’s her name. That’s the family name.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Oh, should we get out?

 

RICH LEVINE: Yeah. So that’s– let’s get out and see if we can– if we can find the grave. Should we bring the metal detector? (LAUGH)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: I mean, it’s not the worst idea, but.

 

RICH LEVINE: For the record, also clearly not the best. Maybe Chris got the gold and buried it under his headstone. All right, sot it’s are the Tillmans.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: George and Mary and an infant, Bertha and George.

 

RICH LEVINE: Okay, so these I believe are– these are Chris’s parents.

 

CHRIS TILLMAN: Martin’s headstone is black. It has two hearts made of red stone.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And then we saw it.

 

RICH LEVINE: Oh.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Oh my gosh.

 

RICH LEVINE: So what we didn’t realize is that Martin’s headstone is actually a dual headstone with– with his first wife’s name on the other side.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Martin Manley, August 15th, 1953, to August 15th, 2013. And on the right side Christine Ardel Tillman, 1951 to– blank space. That’s– I did not expect that.

 

RICH LEVINE: Next to each other.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: They’ll be buried together.

 

RICH LEVINE: Standing there on the top of the hill, we stared at the numbers that bookend the life of Martin Manley, the day he was born, then the day he chose to die.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And then bisecting the two sides is– the column, and it’s– it says, Psalm 139, which I don’t recall.

 

RICH LEVINE: I’m going to– look that up right now. Psalm 139. “You have searched me, Lord, and you know me. You know when I sit and when I rise. You perceive my thoughts from afar. You discern my going out and my lying down. You are familiar with all my ways. Before a word is on my tongue, you, Lord, know it completely.”

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: I wonder if he had that memorized.

 

(RICH LEVINE: Unintel)

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Is that before Timothy? I don’t know. (LAUGH)

 

RICH LEVINE: It’s so interesting, because, like, everything– we kind of joke that a lotta things with Martin seem like– there was always something lacking in the end. And it’s like, even here when we come to his headstone, gravestone, it’s– there’s nothing underneath.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yeah, this is his gravestone, but like, he’s not here. Martin was cremated. Some of his ashes are in Barbie’s basement. He’s with Teri, with Marissa. He scattered outside the Advent Lutheran Church.

 

RICH LEVINE: But a headstone is still a place where you can gather to remember, to make a gesture. On the way here at the– at the Dollar General store in– in Auburn, Kansas, we bought– a 20 ounce bottle of Pepsi. I don’t know if– if he was here we could pour it out a little bit and maybe it would seep down into–

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: If we do that, pour a little bit out for him?

 

RICH LEVINE: I think so.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Yeah, rest in peace, Martin Manley. There you are, sir. Oh, you should know that– Mitch Richmond made the Hall of Fame.

 

RICH LEVINE: Martin had wanted to change the game he loved. While he didn’t live long enough to see that happen, it happened nonetheless. Basketball has become more like the game he thought it should be, but not because of him. He left and the river kept moving without him.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Twelve years after he was gone, two people he never knew came to exhume his life. We tried to use his legacy to build a piece of ours, and learn to accept that no matter what we do, the current will take us one day too.

 

MARTIN MANLEY: The only thing I was sorry for is that by dying I may have reminded you of your own mortality. And that seems to be a big problem for everyone else. Sorry.

 

RICH LEVINE: It’s okay, Martin. We can live with that. I’ll put this right here next the his headstone.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: And I realized I use– old basketball cards as bookmarks, and I had one in my book, Michael Williams.

 

RICH LEVINE: Cleveland Cavs or Pacers?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Pacers, from– actually from, yeah, from ’91-’92. So a good year.

 

RICH LEVINE: Know what I remember about Michael Williams? That he had the record, I think, for most consecutive free throws made.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Really–

 

RICH LEVINE: In one– is his foul shot percentage on the back of the card?

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: 87%, 88% in ’91.

 

RICH LEVINE: Yeah, he was a very good foul shooter.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Chasing Basketball Heaven is a 30 for 30 Podcast produced by ESPN, Hyperobject Industries, and Meadowlark Media.

 

RICH LEVINE: It was reported and hosted by Nick Altschuller and Rich Levine, with Craig Kilborn as the voice of Martin Manley.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Executive producers from Hyperobject Industries and Meadowlark Media are Adam McKay, Clare Slaughter, and Bradley Campbell.

 

RICH LEVINE: Senior editorial producer of 30 for 30 Podcasts is Preeti Varathan.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: This series senior producer is Raghu Manavalan.

 

RICH LEVINE: The series producer is Gus Navarro.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Consulting producer is Gary Hoenig.

 

RICH LEVINE: Story editors were Jamie York and Mac Montandon.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Sound design and mixing by John DeLore.

 

RICH LEVINE: Theme song composed by Allison Leyton-Brown and John DeLore.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Show art by Brian Lutz.

 

RICH LEVINE: Becca Lish is the voice of Chris Tillman.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Fact checking by Matt Giles and David Sabino.

 

RICH LEVINE: Our sensitivity reader was John Moe.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: For 30 for 30 and ESPN, line producer is Catherine Sankey.

 

RICH LEVINE: Associate producer is Isabella Seman.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Production assistants are Diamante McKelvie and Anthony Salas.

 

RICH LEVINE: Producer is Carolyn Hepburn.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Senior producers are Marquis Daisy and Gentry Kirby.

 

RICH LEVINE: Heather Anderson, Marsha Cooke, Brian Lockhart, and Burke Magnus are executive producers for 30 for 30.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: Rights and clearances by Jennifer Thorpe and Kaal Griffith.

 

RICH LEVINE: This podcast was developed by Tara Nadolny and Cynthia Paribello.

 

NICK ALTSCHULLER: To listen to more sports series like this one, search for 30 for 30 Podcasts wherever you listen to podcasts or find us at 30for30Podcasts.com. And as always, thanks for listening.